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Key uncertainty events impacting on the completion time of highway construction projects

Alireza MOGHAYEDI, Abimbola WINDAPO

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年 第6卷 第2期   页码 275-298 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0022-7

摘要： This paper examines the uncertainty events encountered in the process of constructing highways, and evaluates their impact on construction time, on highway projects in South Africa. The rationale for this examination stems from the view held by scholars that the construction of highways is a complex process, taking place in changing environments and often beset by uncertainties; and that there is a lack of appropriate evaluation of these uncertainty events occurring during the construction process. The research made use of a review of extant literature in the area of uncertainty management, and modeling in infrastructure projects, to guide the direction of the study. The inquiry process consisted of brainstorming by highway experts and interviewing them to identify the uncertainty factors that impact construction time. An uncertainty matrix for South African highway projects was developed, using a quantitative model and descriptive statistics. It emerged from the study that the uncertainty events affecting the construction time of highway projects are distributed across economic, environmental, financial, legal, political, social and technical factors. Also, it was found that each factor might account for several uncertainty events which impact on construction time differently, through a combination of the uncertainty events of the individual construction activities. Based on the obtained data, an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been developed, as a simple, reliable and accurate advanced machine learning technique to assess the impact of uncertainty events on the completion time of highway construction projects. To validate the ANFIS model, the Stepwise Regression (SR) models have been designed and their results are compared with the results of the ANFIS. Based on the predicted impact size of uncertainty events on the time of highway projects, it can be concluded that construction time on South African highway projects is significantly related to the social and technical uncertainties factors.

关键词： ANFIS     construction time     impact assessment     highway project     South Africa     uncertainty    

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Sustainable intensification of agriculture is key to feeding Africa in the 21st century

Shenggen FAN

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第7卷 第4期   页码 366-370 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2020342

摘要：

Africa in facing numerous challenges in the 21st century in feeding its rapidly increasing population. Land resources have become limited due to urbanization and industrialization. The existing agricultural land has been degraded and soil fertility has declined due to unsustainable farming practices. Despite of progress made in the past several decades, hunger and malnutrition in Africa still hinder health, human development and economic growth, which will become even worse in the future if proper measures are not taken. Sustainable intensification is the only solution to tackling both environmental sustainability including climate change and malnutrition, i.e., to produce more foods in terms of nutrients human body needs with less natural resources and carbon emissions. To achieve this vision, innovations in technologies, policies and institutions are essential. The Chinese experience in Agricultural Green Development (AGD) can be shared with Africans when the region is pursuing its sustainable intensification strategy.

关键词： Africa     sustainable intensification     Agricultural Green Development     climate change     malnutrition    

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Sustainable intensification of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: first things first!

Bernard VANLAUWE, Achim DOBERMANN

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第7卷 第4期   页码 376-382 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2020351

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Variation characteristics of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide in summertime at a coastal site in the South

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第11期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-022-1574-z

摘要：

● Diurnal patterns of CH4 and CO2 are clearly extracted using EEMD.

关键词： Methane     Carbon dioxide     Diurnal pattern     Ensemble empirical mode decomposition     South China Sea     Sea breeze    

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中国食用菌产业技术对非合作与发展研究

李芬妮 ,张俊飚 ,姚方杰, 傅廷栋

《中国工程科学》 2019年 第21卷 第4期   页码 105-110 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.04.009

摘要：

农业技术落后与缺乏严重阻碍了非洲农业的发展，我国作为农耕历史文化悠久以及负责任大国，通过输出实用生产技术实现中非合作是值得思考的问题。企业是中国农业“走出去”的主体，本文以吉林省海外农业投资开发集团有限公司为例，发现基于我国食用菌产业实力雄厚、优化大国形象的需要以及非洲自身的资源和市场优势使得中国食用菌产业技术对非拓展市场成为可能。本文提出了加大选育适合当地的当家品种、控制生产规模扩张速度、加强技术人才的培养、充分运用国家相关优惠政策等建议，以推动我国食用菌产业技术对非合作与发展。

关键词： 食用菌     中非合作     “一带一路”     农业合作    

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南水北调工程

Office of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project Construction Committee, State Council, PRC

《工程（英文）》 2016年 第2卷 第3期   页码 265-267 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2016.03.022

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Quantitative standard of eco-compensation for the water source area in the middle route of the South-to-North

Zhanfeng DONG, Jinnan WANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2011年 第5卷 第3期   页码 459-473 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0288-9

摘要： The Middle Route Project(MRP) of the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme (SNWT) in China will require a very large financial expenditure to ensure the water supply and the associated water quality to northern China. An eco-compensation mechanism between the water service source areas and its beneficiaries is essential. This paper establishes an analytic framework of eco-compensation standard for the protection of the water source area, including both the calculation of eco-compensation based on opportunity cost method (OCM) and calculation of the burden sharing of eco-compensation between the water source area and the external water reception area based on the deviation square method (DSM). Taking Shiyan City, Hubei Province in China as a case study, our results show that the eco-compensation in the first-phase of MRP for the water source area in Shiyan, Hubei Province should be 1.63×10 CNY, about four times of planned eco-construction investment budget(4.33×10 CNY). In addition, the burden sharing of eco-compensation varied greatly in terms of different methods. It would be better to integrate the results of different single-factor burden sharing methods by determining the corresponding weighting coefficient with DSM and form one unanimous consent result by the interested parties.

关键词： the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme     eco-compensation standard     opportunity costs     deviation square method    

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF CROP-LIVESTOCK FARMS IN AFRICA

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2021年 第8卷 第1期

摘要：

Crop-livestock farms across Africa are highly variable due to in agroecological and socioeconomic factors, the latter shaping the demand and supply of livestock products. Crop-livestock farms in Africa in the 20-first century are very different from most mixed farms elsewhere in the world. African crop-livestock farms are smaller in size, have fewer livestock, lower productivity and less dependency on imported feed than farms in most countries of Europe, the Americas and the intensive agricultural systems of Asia. This paper discusses the role African crop-livestock farms have in the broader socio-agricultural economy, and how these are likely to change adapting to pressures brought on by the intensification of food systems. This intensification implies increasing land productivity (more food per hectare), often leading to more livestock heads per farm, producing fertilized feeds in croplands and importing feed supplements from the market. This discussion includes (1) the links between crop yields, soil fertility and crop-livestock integration, (2) the increasing demand for livestock products and the land resources required to meet to this demand, and (3) the opportunities to integrate broader societal goals into the development of crop-livestock farms. There is ample room for development of crop-livestock farms in Africa, and keeping integration as part of the development will help prevent many of the mistakes and environmental problems related to the intensification of livestock production observed elsewhere in the world. This development can integrate biodiversity, climate change adaptation and mitigation to the current goals of increasing productivity and food security. The inclusion of broader goals could help farmers access the level of finance required to implement changes.

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Genetic diversity and population structure of indigenous chicken breeds in South China

Xunhe HUANG,Jinfeng ZHANG,Danlin HE,Xiquan ZHANG,Fusheng ZHONG,Weina LI,Qingmei ZHENG,Jiebo CHEN,Bingwang DU

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2016年 第3卷 第2期   页码 97-101 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2016102

摘要： A total of 587 individuals from 12 indigenous chicken breeds from South China and two commercial breeds were genotyped for 26 microsatellites to investigate the genetic diversity and population structure. All microsatellites were found to be polymorphic. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 5 to 36, with an average of 12.10 ± 7.00 (SE). All breeds, except White Recessive Rock, had high allelic polymorphism (>0.5). Higher genetic diversity was revealed in the indigenous chicken breeds rather than in the commercial breeds. Potential introgression from the commercial breeds into the indigenous chickens was also detected. The population structure of these indigenous chicken breeds could be explained by their geographical distribution, which suggested the presence of independent history of breed formation. Data generated in this study will provide valuable information to the conservation for indigenous chicken breeds in future.

关键词： microsatellites     genetic diversity     population structure     indigenous chicken     South China     conservation    

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Evaluation of the wind energy potential of two south west sites in Nigeria

Olaleye M. AMOO

《能源前沿（英文）》 2012年 第6卷 第3期   页码 237-246 doi: 10.1007/s11708-012-0201-2

摘要： Wind resource assessment is a crucial first step in gauging the potential of a site to produce energy from wind turbines. In this paper, the wind energy potential of Abeokuta (07°03'N, 03°19'E) and Ijebu-Ode (06°47'N, 03°58'E), two south west sites in Nigeria were examined. Twenty years (1990–2010) of monthly mean wind data from a 10 m height were subjected to two-parameter Weibull analysis and other statistical analyses. The results show that the average annual mean wind speed variation for Abeokuta ranges from 2.2 to 5.0 m/s. For Ijebu-Ode, it ranges from 2.0 to 5.0 m/s. The wind power density variation based on the Weibull analysis ranges from 4.26 to 24.51 W/m for Abeokuta and from 8.54 to 76.46 W/m for Ijebu-Ode. Ijebu-Ode was found to be the better of the two sites in terms of annual variation of mean wind speed.

关键词： wind potential     wind speed     wind power density     wind gust     turbulence intensity     Nigeria    

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Wind-diesel hybrid power system integration in the south Algeria

Khaireddine ALLALI,El Bahi AZZAG,Nabil KAHOUL

《能源前沿（英文）》 2015年 第9卷 第3期   页码 259-271 doi: 10.1007/s11708-015-0367-5

摘要： In most isolated sites situated in south Algeria, the diesel generators are the major source of electrical energy. Indeed, the power supply of these remote regions still poses order problems (technical, economical and ecological). The electricity produced with the help of diesel generators is very expensive and responsible for CO emission. These isolated sites have significant wind energy potential. Hence, the use of twinning wind-diesel is widely recommended, especially to reduce operating deficits. The objective of this paper is to study the global modeling of a hybrid system which compounds wind turbine generator, diesel generator and storage system. This model is based on the control strategy to optimize the functioning of the hybrid system and to consolidate the gains to provide proper management of energy sources (wind, diesel, battery) depending on the load curve of the proposed site. The management is controlled by a controller which ensures the opening/closing of different power switches according to meteorological conditions (wind speed, air mass, temperature, etc).

关键词： wind-diesel     storage system     isolated site     management     simulation    

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Ecological security evaluation of Africa

Huihui WEI, Wenjuan ZHANG, Feng ZHANG, Guojun SUN

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第7卷 第4期   页码 467-477 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2020320

摘要：

Africa, the second largest continent in the world, has achieved remarkable economic and political results through exploration and positive development. Ecological security comprehensively reflects the heath and integrity of an ecosystem, and it is broadly defined as the security state of a complex artificial ecosystem composed of natural, economic and social factors. Ecological security determines the potential for sustainable development in Africa, especially with its rapidly developing economies. However, there is a lack of information on the ecological security state of the continent as a whole. In this study, we constructed an evaluation system based on a pressure-state-response model and evaluated the ecological security state of all 54 African countries. The results showed that, at the national level, the ecological security state of the countries in Africa differed, as did their spatial and temporal variations from 1995 to 2016. In general, African countries showed relatively good ecological security. The years 2007 and 2001 were the worst and best years, respectively, in terms of ecological security during the study period. At the regional level, North Africa and West Africa had the best and worst ecological security, respectively.

关键词： Africa     ecological security     evaluation system     PSR model    

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Ecological assessment of lakeshore wetland rehabilitation on eastern route of South-to-North Water Transfer

ZHANG Jian, Lu Yifeng, JING Yuming, ZHANG Bo, ZHANG Chenglu, MENG Fei, ZHANG Huayong

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2008年 第2卷 第3期   页码 306-310 doi: 10.1007/s11783-008-0057-1

摘要： To evaluate the ecological effects of lakeshore wetland rehabilitation on the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, species composition, coverage, height, and biomass of wetland communities at 22 sites of the study area on the shore of Nansi Lake in April and May 2007 were investigated. The wetlands under investigation were divided into platform fields, transition zones, and shallow water zones according to differences in elevations, water levels, and human activities. The species richness index, Shannon-Wiener index, Simpson index, and Pielou Evenness index were adopted to delineate and discuss the ecological effects of lakeshore wetland rehabilitation in 22 quadrates. Results showed that the species richness of the wetland areas after 2 years’ rehabilitation amounted to 47 of 24 families, higher than 25 of 20 families in areas without rehabilitation. The biodiversity index and abundance index of rehabilitated areas were also higher than those of platform fields and fish ponds where there was no rehabilitation. In addition, the Shannon-Wiener index, Simpson index, and community evenness index of platform fields in rehabilitated wetland areas were 1.619, 0.745, and 0.860, respectively, higher than those of the platform fields before rehabilitating. The results suggested that the constructed lakeshore wetland played an important role in protecting the diversity of species.

关键词： community     South-to-North     Shannon-Wiener     Evenness     addition    

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Distribution and temporal variability of the solar resource at a site in south-east Norway

Muyiwa S. ADARAMOLA

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年 第10卷 第4期   页码 375-381 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0426-6

摘要： Globally, solar energy is expected to play a significant role in the changing face of energy economies in the near future. However, the variability of this resource has been the main barrier for solar energy development in most locations around the world. This paper investigated the distribution and variability of solar radiation using the a 10-year (2006 to 2015) data collected at Sørås meteorological station located at latitude 59° 39′ N and longitude 10° 47′E, about 93.3 m above sea level (about 30 km from Oslo), in south-eastern part of Norway. It is found that on annual basis, the total number of days with a global solar radiation of less than 1 kWh/(m ·d) is 120 days while the total number of days with an expected global solar radiation greater than 3 kWh/(m ·d) is 156 days (42.74%) per year. The potential energy output from a horizontally placed solar collector in these 156 days is approximately 75% of the estimated annual energy output. In addition, it is found that the inter-annual coefficient of variation of the global solar radiation is 4.28%, while that of diffuse radiation is 4.96%.

关键词： coefficient of variation     global solar radiation     diffuse ratio     albedo     PV energy systems    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Key uncertainty events impacting on the completion time of highway construction projects

Alireza MOGHAYEDI, Abimbola WINDAPO

期刊论文

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is key to feeding Africa in the 21st century

Shenggen FAN

期刊论文

Sustainable intensification of agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: first things first!

Bernard VANLAUWE, Achim DOBERMANN

期刊论文

Variation characteristics of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide in summertime at a coastal site in the South

期刊论文

中国食用菌产业技术对非合作与发展研究

李芬妮 ,张俊飚 ,姚方杰, 傅廷栋

期刊论文

南水北调工程

Office of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project Construction Committee, State Council, PRC

期刊论文

Quantitative standard of eco-compensation for the water source area in the middle route of the South-to-North

Zhanfeng DONG, Jinnan WANG

期刊论文

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF CROP-LIVESTOCK FARMS IN AFRICA

期刊论文

Genetic diversity and population structure of indigenous chicken breeds in South China

Xunhe HUANG,Jinfeng ZHANG,Danlin HE,Xiquan ZHANG,Fusheng ZHONG,Weina LI,Qingmei ZHENG,Jiebo CHEN,Bingwang DU

期刊论文

Evaluation of the wind energy potential of two south west sites in Nigeria

Olaleye M. AMOO

期刊论文

Wind-diesel hybrid power system integration in the south Algeria

Khaireddine ALLALI,El Bahi AZZAG,Nabil KAHOUL

期刊论文

Ecological security evaluation of Africa

Huihui WEI, Wenjuan ZHANG, Feng ZHANG, Guojun SUN

期刊论文

Ecological assessment of lakeshore wetland rehabilitation on eastern route of South-to-North Water Transfer

ZHANG Jian, Lu Yifeng, JING Yuming, ZHANG Bo, ZHANG Chenglu, MENG Fei, ZHANG Huayong

期刊论文

INTEGRATED CROP-LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS: LESSONS FROM NEW YORK, BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN UNITED

期刊论文

Distribution and temporal variability of the solar resource at a site in south-east Norway

Muyiwa S. ADARAMOLA

期刊论文